Luxury Divide: Zegna Outperforms Moncler in Q2 Amidst Shifting Consumer Behavior and Cooling Paid Creator Marketing
The second quarter of 2023 presented a starkly contrasting narrative for two prominent luxury fashion houses, Moncler and Ermenegildo Zegna Group, highlighting divergent market strategies and evolving consumer behaviors within the high-end sector. While Zegna reported robust growth, largely fueled by its direct-to-consumer (DTC) model and a strong focus on high-spending clientele, Moncler grappled with the lingering effects of weakened tourism and a pronounced shift in purchasing patterns for its core winter outerwear. This divergence comes against a backdrop of a broader recalibration in luxury marketing, with new data revealing a significant downturn in the value generated by paid creator content for U.S. luxury fashion brands in June.
Moncler’s Q2 Challenges: Navigating Seasonal Shifts and Tourism Flux
Moncler Group’s second-quarter revenue saw a modest 5% increase at constant exchange rates, a figure that, while positive, masked underlying challenges for its flagship brand. The core Moncler brand recorded only a 3% revenue rise, falling short of analysts’ expectations and signaling a period of recalibration for the luxury outerwear specialist.
Geographically, the performance was uneven. Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) experienced an 8% decline in sales, a significant drag on overall results. This downturn was attributed to a confluence of factors, including reduced spending from key tourist demographics—namely Chinese, Korean, and American visitors—who had previously driven significant luxury purchases in European capitals. Simultaneously, local consumer demand in the region also softened, compounding the pressure. In contrast, Asia recorded a healthy 12% growth, while the Americas contributed a 4% increase, suggesting a repatriation of luxury spending to shoppers’ home markets.
Luciano Santel, Moncler Group’s Chief Corporate and Supply Officer, acknowledged the mixed performance during the company’s earnings call, characterizing the quarter as "good — not great, but good." He noted that April and May were strong months, but June witnessed a "softer, much softer" trend due to an "evident and clear decline in traffic in all the different regions." This decline underscores the luxury sector’s continued sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds and shifts in discretionary spending.
A significant challenge for Moncler stems from evolving consumer purchasing habits, specifically the "buy-now, wear-now" phenomenon. While its spring-summer collection performed well, customers increasingly delayed purchases of fall-winter products until the weather necessitated them. Santel noted, "The very good performance of the spring-summer collection in June was not enough to offset the decline in the fall-winter collection." This behavior intensifies the seasonality of Moncler’s business, despite its efforts to diversify its product offering.
To mitigate its reliance on winter outerwear and counteract seasonal fluctuations, Moncler launched its first fully integrated spring-summer campaign, "Have a Puffy Summer." This initiative spanned product development, in-store experiences, e-commerce, wholesale, CRM, and marketing. Gino Fisanotti, Moncler’s Chief Brand Officer, emphasized the campaign’s strategic importance, stating it represented "the kickoff of a long-term commitment that we have as a brand," aiming to broaden Moncler’s appeal beyond its iconic down jackets.
However, analysts remain cautious. Luca Solca, Senior Luxury Goods Analyst at Bernstein, remarked that while "Moncler continues to be a compelling brand," it is "not immune to the value-for-money backlash" affecting soft luxury brands. Solca further predicted that Moncler’s "seasonal lull to dominate near-term trading," with tourism pressures likely persisting into the third quarter. This indicates that while strategic diversification is underway, its full impact on smoothing out seasonal volatility may take time to materialize.
Ermenegildo Zegna Group’s Strong Performance: A DTC and HNWI-Driven Success
In stark contrast to Moncler, Ermenegildo Zegna Group delivered an impressive second-quarter performance, reporting 11% organic growth, a full four percentage points ahead of consensus expectations. This robust growth was broadly distributed across its brand portfolio. The flagship Zegna brand saw revenue surge by 16.5%, while Tom Ford Fashion, a relatively newer acquisition, grew 7.1%, and Thom Browne recorded a 2.7% increase.
A cornerstone of Zegna’s success lies in its strategic pivot towards a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model and a retail-first approach. Group retail sales climbed by a substantial 17.3%, even as wholesale revenues declined by 9.5% as the company deliberately reduced its exposure to this channel. DTC now accounts for a commanding 86% of brand revenue and experienced double-digit growth across all three of its primary brands. This direct control over the customer journey allows Zegna to cultivate deeper relationships with its clientele and capture a larger share of the value chain.
Geographically, Zegna demonstrated broad-based strength. The Americas emerged as a particularly strong growth engine, expanding by 21.8% and now representing 31% of the group’s total revenue. Greater China, despite broader economic uncertainties, increased by 8.6%, while the rest of Asia-Pacific showed significant momentum with a 19.3% rise. This diversified geographical strength provides a degree of insulation against regional economic fluctuations.
The Zegna brand’s DTC sales growth of 18% was achieved entirely through comparable-store growth, underscoring the effectiveness of its existing retail footprint and client engagement strategies. The company actively invests in clienteling—the practice of building personalized relationships with high-value customers—merchandising, and selective new store openings. Chairman and CEO Gildo Zegna articulated this priority: "Today, our priority is to selectively expand the retail network while deepening our relationship with existing customers."
A notable initiative that bolstered client interest and brand recognition was the five-day Villa Zegna event in Los Angeles. Gildo Zegna reported that the event, which welcomed "friends of the brand to discover exclusive collections," delivered "results in terms of coverage, recognition and client interest that exceeded our expectations." Such exclusive, experiential marketing events are crucial for engaging high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), a demographic that Bernstein analysts identified as a key driver of Zegna’s success. The firm noted that Zegna is "reaping the benefits of its HNWI exposure and strong momentum in the Americas." The group is now systematically applying its proven retail-first strategy, complete with clienteling and merchandising investments, to Thom Browne and Tom Ford Fashion, aiming to replicate the Zegna brand’s success.
Divergent Strategies, Divergent Outcomes: A Luxury Market Snapshot
The contrasting fortunes of Moncler and Zegna in Q2 vividly illustrate the evolving dynamics of the global luxury market. Zegna’s success underscores the critical importance of nurturing local high-spending customers and maintaining tight control over distribution channels. Its robust DTC growth and focus on HNWIs provide a more stable and predictable revenue stream, less susceptible to the vagaries of international tourism. By emphasizing personalized clienteling and experiential events, Zegna builds loyalty and drives organic growth among its most valuable customers.
Moncler, while a compelling brand, remains more exposed to external factors like international tourism flows and the precise timing of seasonal demand for its core products. While its strength in Asia is notable, the decline in EMEA sales due to reduced tourist spending highlights a vulnerability. The "buy-now, wear-now" trend further complicates inventory management and sales forecasting, demanding greater agility in its supply chain and marketing efforts.
The broader luxury market is navigating a complex period characterized by post-pandemic normalization, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties. Consumers are increasingly discerning, with some segments exhibiting a "value-for-money backlash" against certain luxury items, particularly in the "soft luxury" categories like apparel. This environment favors brands with strong local appeal, diversified product offerings, and direct engagement models that can adapt quickly to changing consumer sentiments. The performance of these two Italian luxury powerhouses serves as a microcosm of the larger industry trends shaping profitability and growth in the high-end sector.
The Shifting Landscape of Luxury Creator Marketing: A June Downturn
Beyond brand-specific performances, the broader ecosystem of luxury marketing is also experiencing significant shifts. New data from influencer-marketing platform Traackr, provided exclusively to Glossy, reveals a notable cooling in the paid creator-marketing space for U.S. luxury fashion brands. In June, the value generated by sponsored U.S. luxury fashion creator content plummeted by 52% month-over-month.
This sharp decline contributed to an overall drop in the Brand Vitality Score (VIT)—a comprehensive metric measuring creator volume, posting frequency, audience size, and content performance—across 148 tracked luxury brands. Total VIT fell by 13.5%, from 1.02 million in May to 883,856 in June. This suggests a broader contraction in the effectiveness or volume of creator-driven engagement within the luxury fashion segment.
A granular look at the data highlights a significant imbalance between organic and paid content. Sponsored content accounted for a mere 4.1% of total VIT in June, while organic content generated the vast majority, 95.9%, despite also experiencing a 10.4% month-over-month decline. This underscores the enduring power of authentic, unpaid endorsements and brand mentions in the luxury sphere, suggesting that consumers and brands alike may be prioritizing genuine resonance over overtly commercialized partnerships.
Performance also varied across different tiers of creators. VIP creators, defined by Traackr as those with over 5 million followers, showed remarkable resilience, experiencing only a marginal 1.3% decline in VIT. This suggests that top-tier influencers, often celebrities or established personalities, continue to command significant attention and value. In contrast, Mega-creator VIT fell by 29.4%, and Micro-creator VIT saw an even sharper decline of 39.9%. This indicates that the mid-to-lower tiers of influencer marketing might be facing greater scrutiny regarding ROI or are simply generating less impactful content.
Among the top-performing brands in the creator marketing space, Louis Vuitton led with an 11.1% share of voice, closely followed by Gucci at 10.9%. Christian Louboutin, despite engaging with fewer creators (921 compared to Louis Vuitton’s 2,861), secured third place by generating substantial VIT, a testament to its creators having the largest average audience among the top 10 brands. Chanel, while working with the most creators and generating the highest number of posts, ranked fourth by total VIT, indicating that sheer volume does not always translate to maximum impact. Rolex distinguished itself with the highest engagement rate and posting frequency among the top 10, highlighting the importance of quality interaction over just broad reach.
Platform dynamics also played a crucial role in the June downturn. Instagram remained the dominant platform, accounting for 76.2% of luxury VIT, though its value declined by 11%. TikTok, a rapidly growing platform for many brands, saw a significant 31.9% decline in luxury VIT, while YouTube bucked the trend with a 13.1% increase. This suggests a potential re-evaluation of platform effectiveness within luxury creator strategies, with YouTube perhaps offering more in-depth content opportunities that resonate with discerning luxury audiences. The data explicitly highlights that "the brands with the most posts did not always generate the most value. Reach, engagement and high-profile organic mentions mattered more." This insight reinforces the notion that quality, authenticity, and strategic alignment are paramount in effective luxury creator marketing, rather than a mere quantity of sponsored content.
Broader Industry Trends and Future Outlook
The Q2 performances of Moncler and Zegna, coupled with the evolving landscape of creator marketing, paint a picture of a luxury sector in constant flux. Brands are increasingly required to demonstrate agility, diversify their offerings, and cultivate deep, direct relationships with their most loyal customers.
For Moncler, the imperative is clear: continued innovation in non-winter categories and strategic marketing to overcome seasonal lulls. This includes expanding its presence in diverse product lines and exploring new geographic markets or consumer segments that are less reliant on traditional tourist flows. Investing in digital engagement and personalized client experiences, akin to Zegna’s approach, could also help mitigate tourism volatility.
Zegna’s success provides a blueprint for other luxury brands, emphasizing the power of a robust DTC strategy, unwavering focus on high-net-worth individuals, and meticulous control over the brand experience. The ability to engage customers directly, whether through exclusive events or personalized clienteling, creates a loyal base that buffers against broader market fluctuations. The ongoing integration of Tom Ford Fashion and Thom Browne into this retail-first model will be a key indicator of the scalability of Zegna’s strategy.
In the realm of luxury marketing, the June downturn in paid creator value signals a maturation of the influencer space. Brands are likely to become more selective, prioritizing genuine engagement, authentic storytelling, and measurable ROI over sheer reach or volume of sponsored posts. The resilience of VIP creators and the importance of organic mentions suggest a shift towards quality over quantity, where influential voices with strong, established connections to their audience continue to deliver value. Platforms that facilitate deeper engagement, such as YouTube, may gain traction, while others face scrutiny over their effectiveness in converting impressions into meaningful brand vitality.
Overall, the luxury industry is adapting to a "new normal" where economic prudence, personalized experiences, and authentic connections are paramount. Brands that can master these elements, while maintaining their core identity and desirability, will be best positioned for sustained growth in an increasingly complex global market.
